When analyzing the H1 chart of the USD/CHF currency pair, I believe the price is likely to fall, but only after a corrective upward movement. I observe that yesterday, the price broke through a key support level at 0.8973, which previously had two supports. After the breakout, the price consolidated significantly lower, transforming the previous support level into a new resistance zone. This is a critical development in my analysis, as it suggests a shift in market structure.Currently, I see that the price has reached the daily support level at 0.8876, and there is a noticeable reaction in the form of a rebound. I interpret this as a sign that the market is finding temporary support at this level. Additionally, I note that the average daily and weekly momentum indicators have completed their downward movements, which further supports my view that a corrective upward rollback is likely. I believe the price has a solid foundation to bounce from here, at least temporarily.I also rely on the arrow and basement indicators, which confirm the possibility of a rollback to the north. In my opinion, the price is likely to retrace toward the previously broken level at 0.8973, as this level has not yet been tested after the breakout. I consider this retest to be a crucial step in the price action, as it would validate the new resistance zone. If the price rebounds downward from this level, I will consider opening sell positions with targets below the daily support level.
In summary, I anticipate a short-term upward correction toward the 0.8973 level before the price resumes its downward movement. I will closely monitor the price action around this level, as a rejection there would provide a strong signal to enter sell positions. My targets would focus on breaking below the daily support, aligning with the broader bearish momentum. I remain cautious and will adjust my strategy based on how the price interacts with these key levels.Today, on the H1 chart of the USDCHF pair, I observe that two widely used indicators, Boa(50) and Grail Indic, are signaling a shift in the market trend. I notice that the upward trend from the previous week has now reversed into a downward trend, indicating that the US dollar is beginning to weaken against safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc. In my analysis, this presents a potential opportunity to consider opening a SELL position for this currency pair.I believe the optimal entry point for a SELL position would be when the Grail Indic indicator displays a yellow icon at the fractal maximum of the price. Additionally, I would look for confirmation from the RSI(10) indicator, which should show a simultaneous decrease, preferably exiting the overbought zone. This combination of signals would strengthen my confidence in the trade setup. For setting the take profit target, I would rely on the Pivot Display Values indicator. Specifically, I would aim for a level below the S3 support level, which is currently at 0.8869. This level seems like a reasonable target given the current market conditions. As for the stop loss, I would place it slightly above the current day’s high or at one of the appropriate R levels provided by the Pivot Display Values indicator. This approach helps me manage risk effectively.I also find it important to monitor the Grail Indic indicator for any changes in the trend. If the indicator shows a yellow icon under the next price minimum, I would consider moving my order to breakeven to lock in profits and reduce risk. This strategy allows me to adapt to potential trend reversals while protecting my capital.In conclusion, I see the current market conditions as favorable for a SELL position on the USDCHF pair, provided the signals from the Grail Indic and RSI(10) indicators align. I would carefully set my take profit and stop loss levels using the Pivot Display Values indicator and remain vigilant for any trend changes signaled by the Grail Indic. I wish everyone successful trading and encourage careful risk management in these dynamic market conditions.
