FX.co ★ NZD/USD

I analyze the NZD/USD currency pair on the D1 chart by first noting that November has just ended, and I observe that October produced a mixed structure with its initial half defined by steady selling pressure, followed by an upward correction and then a renewed decline. I see that sellers clearly dominated October, and I emphasize that the overall wave structure still maintains a pronounced downward pattern. I confirm that the MACD indicator remains in the lower selling zone, and I acknowledge that earlier I saw a strong probability for a larger corrective upward wave due to the visible descending-wedge growth pattern. I also remember noticing bullish divergence on the CCI indicator at that time, which normally would support a deeper rebound. I recognize, however, that the broad strengthening of the US dollar across global markets prevented buyers from achieving a significant pullback despite their attempts. I then observe that a bearish convergence formed on the CCI, after which I saw the decline resume confidently. I interpret the waves as indicating that the third downward wave had already begun, and I therefore did not expect any major strengthening. I maintain that selling remains my priority on short-term timeframes until the price reaches the 161.8% Fibonacci target derived from the first wave, and I note that this target is already close. I anticipate that once this level is hit, indicators may show bullish divergence, and I believe selling pressure will likely appear again at that point, possibly triggering a corrective rebound toward 0.5707. I also consider that the price may still be aiming for the major support at 0.5513, which I see as a historically strong zone that produced upward bounces in 2020, 2022, and 2025. I conclude that only sell setups make sense in the shorter term because they still offer the highest probability. I observe that price temporarily reached the 161.8% level and reacted upward due to bullish divergence, yet I ultimately believe the most influential factor was the Reserve Bank of New Zealand keeping interest rates unchanged. I now expect December to begin with a continuation of the decline toward that major support target.

I look at the concepts and terminology here from several angles, and I remind myself that the timeframe I am focusing on plays a major role in how I interpret price behavior, particularly because I am currently most interested in the daily period for NZD/USD. I see that NZD/USD is rising at the moment, and I note that the price is already approaching the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement resistance near 0.5780, which I consider an important technical barrier. I suspect that the pair will likely continue its upward movement toward that level, and I believe the market still needs to test this resistance before any meaningful correction can begin. I admit that I am uncertain about how to trade NZD/USD right now because I feel that buying at this stage seems too late, especially since the price is very close to a key resistance zone. I consider the selling scenario as well, but I realize that entering a sell position is also not straightforward because I cannot be certain whether a reversal from resistance will actually occur. I understand that the resistance might be broken, and I recognize that the current weakness of the US dollar creates conditions that could allow further upside movement. I observe that this weakness is visible across most major currency pairs, and I acknowledge that it influences my expectations about NZD/USD’s reaction at the 38.2% level. I think about how the broader market environment affects this pair, and I recognize that relying solely on resistance without considering fundamental pressure could lead to premature decisions. I also note that the strength of the current upward movement suggests that buyers still have momentum on their side, which makes me cautious about selling too early. I feel that waiting for clearer confirmation, such as a candlestick rejection or divergence on indicators, might offer a more strategic approach. I continue analyzing the structure, and I see that the market may attempt to break the resistance rather than reverse immediately, which is why I remind myself that patience is necessary here. I ultimately conclude that my hesitation reflects the complexity of the current setup, and I prefer to observe how the price behaves at 0.5780 before committing to a clear trading direction.