I am analyzing EURUSD on the H1 timeframe and I note that the pair is currently trading above the daily opening level at 1.1640, which I interpret as a sign that buyers are still attempting to control the intraday structure. I also observe that price is holding above the daily Pivot level at 1.1651, and I consider this level an important intraday balance point that often separates bullish and bearish sessions. I see that the main indicators are neutral, and I interpret this neutrality as confirmation that the market is in a corrective or consolidative phase rather than in a strong trend. I am paying close attention to the fact that price is hovering near the MA72 trend line, because I know from experience that this moving average often acts as a dynamic equilibrium zone where volume unloading and short-term reversals can occur. I recognize that this location increases the probability of choppy price action and false signals. I believe that the level of 1.1663 is the key decision point for the session, and I see it clearly acting as the weekly Pivot, which makes it a natural fork for both buyers and sellers. I expect that if price manages to hold and build acceptance above 1.1663, I could see a continuation move toward 1.1670, and I would not rule out a further extension toward 1.1680 if momentum increases. I also understand that such an upside move would still be corrective in nature, given that the pair is trading below the monthly Pivot at 1.1710. I am equally aware that if price fails to sustain above 1.1663 and slips back below it, I would expect a pullback toward the daily Pivot at 1.1651. I further anticipate that a deeper intraday decline could test the daily opening level and first support around 1.1640, which I see as a critical level for maintaining any bullish intraday bias. I note that EURUSD is trading below the weekly Pivot at 1.1663 and below the monthly Pivot, and I interpret this higher-timeframe context as a signal that upside attempts are likely to face selling pressure. I believe this alignment of higher-timeframe pivots supports the idea of a corrective sentiment rather than a sustainable bullish trend. I am cautious about chasing breakouts in either direction because the indicators do not currently support a strong directional move. I think that the proximity of resistance around 1.1661 further complicates upside progress, as this level could easily trigger short-term selling. I am watching closely how price reacts around this resistance because a rejection here would reinforce the bearish corrective bias. I also consider that holding above 1.1651 keeps the market balanced and prevents bears from gaining full control. I believe that the session’s structure is defined by this narrow range, and I understand that trading within it requires precise execution. I am therefore inclined to wait for a clear acceptance above 1.1663 or a decisive rejection below it before committing to a directional trade. I conclude that the most logical approach is to respect the weekly Pivot as the session’s pivot point and to align any trade decisions with confirmed price behavior around this level.
I see the recent approach of sellers toward the horizontal support at 1.1615 as a negative technical signal because I understand that repeated pressure on a support level usually weakens it psychologically and structurally. I note that the strong rally on Monday immediately after that test suggests to me that buyers were actively defending this area and that there may indeed be a cluster of buy stops sitting just below 1.1615, which often attracts liquidity-driven moves. I also observe that the prior decline happened without first clearing stops above the 1.1700 resistance, and I interpret this as a sign that the market has not yet completed a full stop-hunting cycle on the upside. I recall that on Monday the price attempted to push toward 1.1700 but failed to break through, and I interpret this rejection as evidence that sellers are still present and willing to defend that zone. I think this failed breakout attempt reinforces my view that the pair is currently balanced rather than trending. I currently perceive the market as being trapped between two well-defined liquidity pools, with buyers clustered below 1.1615 and sellers likely concentrated above 1.1700. I believe that when price trades roughly in the middle of such a range, as EURUSD is doing now, the risk-to-reward profile for directional trades becomes unattractive. I recognize that my attempt to buy from the breakout zone was logical in theory, but I also accept that the subsequent stalling price action invalidated the momentum premise behind that trade. I feel that my decision to exit the long position was correct because I prioritize capital preservation when the market fails to follow through. I am now questioning whether to switch to shorts, but I remain cautious because I do not see a confirmed bearish trigger yet. I think that entering short positions in the middle of the range would expose me to the risk of a sudden upside stop run toward 1.1700. I also consider that selling too early could mean getting caught in a false downside move that quickly reverses. I believe that the most prudent approach is to wait for a clearer stop-triggering event, either below 1.1615 or above 1.1700. I expect that such a stop run would inject volatility and reveal the true intentions of the dominant side. I am particularly interested in a false breakout scenario because I know from experience that failed breakouts often provide high-probability reversal setups. I would feel more confident selling if I see a clear break above 1.1700 followed by a sharp rejection back into the range, as that would signal trapped buyers. I would also consider buying if I see a clean sweep below 1.1615 followed by a fast recovery, as that would indicate trapped sellers. I understand that patience is critical in this type of environment because forced trades usually lead to suboptimal outcomes. I also acknowledge that both buyers and sellers currently have valid technical arguments, which reinforces my neutral bias. I remain focused on observing how price behaves near the edges of the range rather than reacting to minor fluctuations in the middle. I think that once stops are triggered and a false breakout forms, the market will offer a clearer directional opportunity. I therefore conclude that standing aside for now aligns best with my trading plan and my understanding of current EURUSD market structure.
