FX.co ★ #Bitcoin chart analysis

I remain cautious because I see that cryptocurrency is still trading in sell territory on the H4 chart, and I note that the lower boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud remains above the price, which keeps the bearish structure formally intact. I observe that the bulls have already broken the bearish engulfing pattern, and I interpret this as the first technical signal that selling pressure is weakening, even though I still treat the current movement as a corrective pullback rather than a trend reversal. I see the price pulling back from support at 86,014 toward resistance at 88,427, and I am watching this zone carefully because I expect that a clean breakout could open the way toward 91,159, while a rejection could easily restart the decline. I acknowledge that I may see a rebound from 88,427, especially because I know the lower boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud is located nearby, and I expect sellers to defend this area aggressively. I also keep in mind that selling could resume not only from 88,427 but also from the higher resistance near 91,159, which could send the price back toward 87,221 or even lower. I recognize that only a confident breakout above 92,365 and the upper boundary of the Cloud would return the market to buy territory, and until that happens I prefer to treat any growth as a pullback within a broader bearish phase. I also rely on the CCI indicator, and I admit that its upward direction confirms that buyers are active, but I still consider this movement limited and tactical rather than the start of a strong rally.

I reflect on last week’s sharp sell-off and I remember how the break below 90,400 occurred right at peak volume, which I interpret as a classic distribution event that pushed the price to three-month lows. I believe that history often shows a buyer reaction after such breakdown retests, and I notice that a hidden bullish divergence is now forming, which encourages me to expect another attempt toward the 96,000–98,000 resistance zone. I also consider the political backdrop, and I think that the possible US shutdown is increasing pressure on Bitcoin, as I suspect investors are rotating into gold and silver, weakening crypto demand. I notice that support around 86,063 is drifting lower, and I admit that a slide toward 85,000 or even 80,000 remains realistic if confidence continues to erode. I recall my own trading plan, and I admit that I was waiting for liquidity to be captured near 86,528 before looking for reversal patterns, which now seems to be unfolding. I remain patient and I prefer to see consolidation above 91,091 before committing to buys, because I know that the recent break of the ascending channel is still a warning sign. I accept that my primary sell targets stand at 80,000 and 72,000, and I conclude that this is a phase where trends can reverse quickly, so I must stay vigilant and flexible while keeping 96,000 as my key scenario-cancellation level.