GBP/USD H4 Timeframe: Based on the GBP/USD chart on the H4 timeframe, it appears that the pair experienced a fairly strong bullish phase since mid-January. The significant rise began at 1.3400 and peaked around 1.3868. The movement structure during this phase formed a clear series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating buyer dominance in the medium term. However, after touching the resistance area of 1.3860–1.3880, the price experienced quite aggressive selling pressure. A reversal was seen with a relatively large bearish candle, indicating profit-taking and the influx of new supply pressure. Since that peak, the price structure has begun to weaken, forming lower highs around 1.3730 and 1.3650. Currently, the price is around 1.3567, slightly above the minor support area of 1.3550. Technically, the price has broken below the medium-term moving average (blue line) and is now moving very close to the long-term moving average (red line). This condition indicates that the short-term momentum is bearish, while the intermediate trend is in a transition phase. If the price remains below the 100-day moving average (MA) and the 200-day moving average (MA) begins to decline, a deeper trend change is likely.
The 1.3655–1.3685 area now serves as the closest, fairly strong resistance. This zone was previously a consolidation area before the recent decline. As long as the price is unable to recover and hold above 1.3685, selling pressure is likely to dominate. If a technical rebound occurs, this area will likely become a testing ground for buyers. On the downside, important support lies around 1.3480 and 1.3400. The 1.3480 level is horizontal support that previously served as a price reaction area. If the price breaks through 1.3480 with strong momentum, a further decline towards 1.3400 or even 1.3340 is a realistic scenario. A break below 1.3400 would confirm a bearish structure change on the H4 timeframe. Structurally, GBP/USD is currently trending towards a correction phase after a sharp rally. The formation of a lower high is starting to signal an early weakening of the uptrend. However, as long as the price remains above 1.3480, this correction can still be categorized as a healthy retracement within the larger trend. Overall, the short-term bias of GBP/USD on the H4 timeframe is bearish as long as the price remains below 1.3655. The potential for a decline remains open towards 1.3480, a key support level. Meanwhile, to return to a bullish scenario, the price needs to break through and hold above 1.3685 to open up the opportunity for a retest of 1.3730 to 1.3860. Traders should pay attention to price action confirmation at key support and resistance areas and maintain risk management, given the relatively high volatility of GBP/USD.
