FX.co ★ AUD/USD

AUD/USD H4 Timeframe: Based on the H4 AUD/USD chart shown, the current price structure is in a corrective phase after forming a fairly solid uptrend since mid-January. This increase is clearly visible when the price moves consistently above the 100-day moving average (MA) (blue line) and 200-day moving average (MA) (red line), with both moving averages sloping upward. This condition reflects healthy medium-term bullish momentum, with the 100-day moving average (MA) above the 200-day moving average (MA) and acting as dynamic support during the impulsive phase. However, in the last few sessions, a change in the character of the price movement has been observed. AUD/USD began to lose its upward momentum after failing to maintain the resistance area around 0.7140–0.7150. The rejection in this area was followed by a series of lower highs on the H4 timeframe, which was an early indication of weakening buying pressure. Currently, the price has broken below the 100-day moving average (MA), and the candle closing below this line indicates significant selling pressure in the short term. The 100-day moving average, which previously acted as dynamic support, has the potential to transform into dynamic resistance. If the price pulls back to the area around the 100-day moving average (MA) and fails to break through again, this will strengthen the scenario for a further correction. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average (MA) remains below the current price, with a relatively gentler position but still trending upward. This indicates that the medium-term uptrend has not been completely broken but is in a retest phase against a larger structure.

The area around the 200-day moving average (MA) is a key zone to watch. If the price continues to weaken and approaches the 200-day moving average (MA), the reaction around this area will significantly determine the next direction. As long as the price remains above the 200-day moving average (MA) and there is no valid breakout with strong momentum, this correction can still be categorized as a pullback within the larger uptrend. Conversely, if the 200-day moving average is penetrated with an impulsive candle followed by a failed retest, the bullish H4 structure has the potential to transform into a distribution phase or even the beginning of a new downtrend. Structurally, recent market movements also indicate a shift from a higher high-higher low pattern to the potential formation of lower highs. This is in line with the fact that the price is already below the 100-day moving average (MA). Thus, the short-term bias tends to be neutral to bearish as long as the price remains below the 100-day moving average (MA). However, the medium-term bias remains relatively bullish as long as the 200-day moving average remains valid support. In conclusion, AUD/USD is at a crucial juncture between a healthy correction within an uptrend and a potential deeper reversal. The price's interaction with the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs) over the next few candles will be the key determinant. Short-term traders will likely be cautious and look for selling opportunities on rallies as long as the price remains below the 100-day moving average (MA), while medium-term market participants will await confirmation that the 200-day moving average (MA) can maintain the bullish structure that has been forming since the beginning of the year.