USD/JPY Timeframe H4: Based on the USD/JPY chart on the H4 timeframe, price movements indicate that the previous main trend was in a fairly strong bullish phase, but significant corrective pressure is now beginning to emerge. From late February to mid-April, the price formed a consistent upward trend with a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, reflecting buyer dominance pushing the price higher. However, in the last few sessions, a sharp decline has occurred, indicating a change in short-term momentum. From the Moving Average indicator, the 100-day moving average (MA), marked by the blue line, remains above the 200-day moving average (MA), with both trending upward, indicating that the medium- to long-term trend remains bullish. However, the current price decline and breaching the 100-day moving average (MA) indicates that selling pressure is beginning to dominate in the short term. In fact, the price has even approached and even touched the 200-day moving average (MA), which serves as a key dynamic support area in maintaining the uptrend structure. If the price continues to move below the 100-day moving average (MA) and fails to recover above it, the indication of weakness will become stronger. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average (MA), which is below the price, still exhibits a stable upward slope, indicating that the long-term trend has not completely changed. The area around the 200-day moving average (MA) is now crucial, as a valid breakout below this line could potentially turn the previously established bullish structure into a neutral or even bearish one.
From a horizontal support and resistance perspective, the area around 159.53 to 160.48 appears to be a strong resistance level that has been tested several times but has been difficult to penetrate consistently. The price's failure to hold above this area is one of the triggers for the sharp selling pressure. As long as the price remains below this zone, the potential for further upside will likely be limited. Regarding support, the 158.85 to 158.03 level is a key zone currently being tested. The price briefly broke through this area with a fairly impulsive bearish movement, but a buying reaction was seen attempting to stem further declines. If the price is able to regain ground above this area, a rebound is still possible, although it will likely be followed by a consolidation phase. If selling pressure persists, the next downside target is in the 157.29 to 156.46 range, which represents a strong support area based on the previous price structure. A decline into this zone would bring the price closer to the 200-day moving average (MA) and be a crucial test of the medium-term bullish trend's sustainability. Overall, although the main trend of USD/JPY remains bullish based on the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs), current conditions indicate a fairly deep correction phase. Weakening momentum is evident from the breakout of the 100-day moving average and pressure on the nearest support area. The subsequent direction will be largely determined by price reaction around the 200-day moving average and key horizontal support. If buyers are able to defend these areas, the uptrend has the potential to continue; however, if not, the likelihood of a trend reversal increases.
