Wheat futures slipped below $5.80 per bushel in late June, their lowest level since April 10, as the rapid progress of the US winter wheat harvest reinforced expectations of abundant supply. The hard red winter wheat harvest reached 49% completion—well ahead of 11% a year earlier and the five-year average of 19%—while the soft red winter wheat harvest advanced to 45%, also exceeding both last year’s pace and the five-year norm. Growing conditions in other key wheat-producing regions remained generally favorable as well.
Downside pressure was partially offset by slower farmer selling during the Northern Hemisphere harvest and mounting concerns over European wheat output following a recent heatwave. At the same time, markets were focused on the upcoming US Department of Agriculture quarterly Grain Stocks report, due Tuesday. Traders were also watching the resumption of security talks in the Strait of Hormuz amid renewed US–Iran tensions, as a sustained recovery in fertilizer shipments through this strategic corridor could help ease worries about wheat production costs.
