Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson warns that the recent rally is false.
Wilson predicts the approaching crash of 2022, which earned him first place in last year's Institutional Investor survey and remains one of the most bearish voices in the market, even though the S&P has grown by 9% in 2023. At the moment, he sees too many worrying triggers to believe that profits will be sustained.
Wilson is confident that this is not a breakthrough confirming a new bull market. In particular, he sees risks in overvalued valuations, a narrow range of profit-generating stocks, and the outperformance of defensive stocks.
One of the risks of increased volatility for the market is the ongoing debates in Washington over raising the US debt ceiling. Wilson said that the decision at the negotiations may temporarily push stocks up, but "we will consider it a false breakthrough/bull trap."
Other JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists also warn of greater market volatility as negotiations drag on. President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are scheduled to meet today.
