一切始于葡萄牙辛特拉，在那里开始，在那里结束。自欧洲央行决定开始收紧货币政策以来，已经过去一年。储蓄利率已经上涨了400个基点，并将在7月再次上涨25个基点。此后会有休息期吗？或者管理委员会会决定在9月继续？时间会告诉我们。目前，对于德国和欧洲通胀加速的期望使得EUR/USD多头不太关注内部负面因素。
据彭博社的专家预测，由于德国取消了优惠的通勤车票，欧元区的基础通货膨胀率在6月份从5.3％加快到5.5％年率计算。这种趋势让欧洲央行的鹰派有可能坚持加息。中间派抓住了货币紧缩对经济产生影响的暂时延迟和经济本身的薄弱点。按照最新的商业活动统计数据显示，货币区可能在2022-2023年的交界处陷入衰退。该衰退可能在第二季度延续。
德国业务气氛在6月份降至今年初以来的最低点，这并没有给欧元/美元的牛市带来乐观情绪。商业预期也令人失望。IFO的报告指出，发达国家的制造业下滑和中国经济的疲软对德国经济产生了负面影响。
德国商业气氛动向
市場忽略了德國的疲弱統計數據，更在意德國和歐洲的通脹率增長幅度。紙面上，這越高對於 EUR/USD 越好。然而，現實情況比較複雜！現在，這主要的貨幣匯率在預期中增長，但在消費者物價數據重要發布之後，可能會出現賣盤。尤其是在六月底，個人消費支出指數的數據即將公佈，這是美聯儲的首選通貨膨脹指標。
Bloomberg experts believe that PCE will accelerate from 4.4% to 4.6%, while the base indicator in May will remain at its current level of 4.7%. According to Credit Agricole, if that happens, the chances of a 25 bps rate hike at two FOMC meetings will increase. This will strengthen the US dollar. Currently, CME derivatives estimate a 74% probability of tightening the Fed's monetary policy in June, but the risks of borrowing costs rising to 5.75% by the end of the year are only about 10%. An increase in the latter number is an important argument in favor of selling the main currency pair.
Technically, on the daily chart, after the implementation of the Anti-Turtles pattern, the "bulls" are trying to counterattack. Their main task is to take the pair's quotes beyond the fair value range of 1.067-1.092. If successful, it will be possible to enter long positions on the breakthrough of resistance at 1.0965-1.0975. If unsuccessful, the euro will plunge into a wave of further selling against the US dollar.
