FX.co ★ US 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls to May Lows

On Monday, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.32%, marking its lowest point since early May. This decline reversed earlier gains as fears of an immediate retaliatory move by Iran following US airstrikes began to ease, reducing concerns about potential disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. This reduction in geopolitical tensions contributed to a drop in oil prices, which subsequently helped alleviate some inflation fears. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman indicated her willingness to support a rate cut in July should inflation continue to decrease, echoing dovish comments made by Governor Waller last Friday. Consequently, the market has increased its expectations of monetary easing, now predicting around 55 basis points of rate cuts by the end of the year. Investors are also keenly awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s upcoming semi-annual testimony before Congress for further insights into the Fed's policy trajectory. Economically, preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures exceeded expectations, although there were signs of rising inflationary pressures.