FX.co ★ Chicago PMI Falls Slightly in June

In June 2025, the Chicago Business Barometer registered a slight decline, moving to 40.4 from May's reading of 40.5, falling short of market predictions which anticipated a figure of 43. This marks the 19th consecutive month the index remains below the pivotal 50-point mark. Currently, it is positioned 7.2 points beneath the March peak of 47.6. This downward trend was primarily fueled by decreases in several key areas: supplier deliveries decreased by 6.8 points, production by 2.7 points, employment by 3.9 points, and order backlogs by 1.5 points. However, these were marginally offset by a significant 4.1-point rise in new orders. Of note, order backlogs have reached their lowest since May 2020, with only 4% of respondents reporting an increase— a near-record low. Additionally, inventories experienced a sharp 8-point decline. On the other hand, the prices paid component saw an 8.3-point surge, reaching the highest level observed since May 2022, as 70% of firms reported facing elevated input costs.