FX.co ★ US 10-Year Treasury Yield Steady in November’s Last Session

On Friday, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note remained around the 4% mark as traders returned for a shorter session following the Thanksgiving holiday. Over the month, the yield has declined by nearly 8 basis points, maintaining proximity to its lowest levels since late October. This shift arises from increasing anticipation that the Federal Reserve will implement another interest rate cut in December. Recently released US data revealed that retail sales in September grew at a slower pace than anticipated, suggesting potential consumer spending weaknesses. Meanwhile, ADP employment data highlighted a significant slowdown in labor market activity. These developments were preceded by Federal Reserve Governor Waller and New York Fed President Williams indicating their endorsement of a rate cut at the Fed's final meeting of the year. Current market pricing indicates approximately an 87% probability of a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate in the upcoming month.