FX.co ★ Wheat Prices Fall to Almost 2-Month Low

Wheat futures have declined to below $5.20 per bushel, reaching their lowest point since late October, due to anticipated increases in global supply. The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts an increase in global wheat supplies by 7.5 million tons, bringing the total to 1,097.8 million tons. This growth is largely attributed to higher production in several key exporting countries. Notably, Argentina is experiencing a record-breaking crop, Australia is predicted to have its third-largest harvest ever, there is a resurgence in European Union production following a weak season last year, and improved yields in Russia are also contributing to this upsurge. Further downward pressure has resulted from policy adjustments, including a decision by Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture to set the wheat export tax to zero and Argentina's reduction of export duties on soybeans, corn, and wheat. On the demand side, the USDA has increased its global wheat consumption estimate for 2025/26 by 4.1 million tons, bringing the figure to 823.0 million tons.