FX.co ★ South Africa Leading Index Recovers in October

In October 2025, Africa's composite leading business cycle indicator experienced a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, bouncing back from a decrease of 1.2% in September. This improvement was largely driven by gains in six out of the ten component time series, which outweighed the declines seen in the other four. The most significant positive influences stemmed from an uptick in South Africa's export commodity price index, measured in US dollars, and enhanced sentiment as noted in the RMB/BER business confidence index. Conversely, key negative influences included a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate of the real M1 money supply and a narrowing interest rate spread. Additionally, the composite coincident indicator rose by 0.1% in September, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month. This was bolstered by increased industrial production and job gains in the formal non-agricultural sector. Furthermore, the lagging indicator saw a rise of 0.8% in September.