FX.co ★ Lumber Rebounds From September Lows

Lumber futures experienced an uptick, approaching $535 per thousand board feet. This increase marks a recovery from the September low of $528, noted on January 7th, following the unwinding of a low liquidity holiday sell-off. The market’s optimism is driven by improved seasonal demand projections and a tighter supply over the longer term. Market participants have re-engaged, indicating that the previous forced selling and thin trading conditions that had depressed prices to multi-month lows have diminished. Demand expectations have bolstered, as builders start preparing in anticipation of the spring construction season, a period traditionally marked by increased consumption following the typical year-end inventory clear-out. Industry projections foresee a slight rise in U.S. housing starts along with repair and remodel activities in 2026, attributed to easing interest rates and diminishing trade uncertainty, all of which are expected to support demand after a sluggish end to 2025. Concurrently, long-term supply expansion remains restricted due to persistent tariffs on Canadian softwood and slower capacity growth in North American sawmills, thus limiting any potential surplus.