FX.co ★ Cocoa Futures Off 2-Year Lows

Cocoa prices have climbed back above $4,400 per tonne, recovering from the two-year low of $4,200 noted on January 23. This resurgence is largely due to technical adjustments by funds, following a significant liquidation phase, rather than any underlying changes in the market's core fundamentals. Over the past month, cocoa prices have seen a decline of approximately 32%, with a notable near 20% drop last week, pushing prices to their lowest in January 2024. Demand has remained consistently weak, while supply outlooks remain promising. According to data released on January 23 by the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), global cocoa stocks for 2024/25 increased by 4.2% year-on-year, totaling 1.1 million metric tonnes. Concurrently, certified inventories monitored by ICE at US ports experienced a slight uptick, hitting a two-month peak of 1,755,877 bags. The cocoa crops currently being harvested are thriving due to favorable weather conditions across key West African regions, particularly in Ivory Coast and Ghana.