FX.co ★ Cocoa Futures Hover Around 2024-Lows

Cocoa prices have stabilized around $4,200 per tonne, remaining close to the lows observed in January 2024. This follows a recent rally attributed to short covering. Despite this, market fundamentals have not shifted, as the influence of oversupply and reduced demand continues to limit price increases. StoneX maintains its forecast of a global cocoa surplus reaching 287,000 metric tonnes for the 2025/26 season, aligning with previous predictions. This outlook is supported by the resurgence of favorable weather conditions in West Africa, a critical cocoa-producing area, as well as a marked reduction in demand driven by rising prices. Looking ahead to the 2026/27 season, a surplus of 267,000 metric tonnes is expected. Furthermore, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has indicated that global cocoa stocks for the 2024/25 period have grown by 4.2% year-over-year, reaching 1.1 million metric tonnes. In terms of inventories, ICE-monitored certified volumes at U.S. ports have risen by 17,741 bags, summing up to a total of 1,773,618 bags.