FX.co ★ TTF Prices Fall More than 12%

European natural gas futures experienced a significant drop of over 12%, settling at approximately €34.3 per megawatt hour on Monday. This movement pulls futures away from the seven-month peak of €40 observed on January 23. The decrease was primarily influenced by forecasts of milder weather and an improved supply of LNG, which alleviated short-term supply concerns. Both the US and Europe have been projected to experience warmer conditions, thereby reducing the demand for heating and facilitating the recovery of gas flows to LNG export facilities after disruptions caused by recent winter storms. As a consequence, US LNG exports have increased as operational facilities ramp up production, easing apprehension in Europe, which is significantly reliant on US supplies. Despite European gas storage levels remaining low, about 41.1% filled, the immediate supply pressure has eased. In January, prices had surged nearly 40%, the most substantial increase since June 2023, spurred by US production shortfalls, cold weather depleting inventories, and broader global supply concerns. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the uncertainties surrounding Iran, have maintained a risk premium within the market.