FX.co ★ Cocoa Futures at Over 2-Year Lows

Cocoa prices have dipped to below $4,000 per tonne, returning to levels last observed in November 2023. This decline is largely attributed to the anticipation of a continued global surplus and the ongoing replenishment of inventories. StoneX, a consulting firm, has forecasted a global surplus of 287,000 tons for the 2025/26 crop year and 267,000 tons for 2026/27, signifying a shift from the tighter market conditions seen in past cycles. Supporting this outlook, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) recently noted a 4.2% year-over-year increase in global cocoa stocks for 2024/25, bringing them to 1.1 million metric tonnes (MMT). Furthermore, recent data from the physical market, as monitored by ICE, shows that certified stocks at US ports have grown by 4,121 bags to a total of 1,775,219 bags, which confirms the gradual replenishment of supply. However, concerns about weakened demand continue to linger. This is evidenced by the latest cocoa grinding figures, with Barry Callebaut reporting first-quarter sales of cocoa products that fell short of forecasts.