FX.co ★ Sugar Futures Subdued

Sugar futures in the United States have recently hovered around 14.3 cents per pound, marking their lowest point since early November 2025, due to continuing expectations of a plentiful global supply. According to StoneX's recent forecasts, the global sugar market for the 2025/26 season is anticipated to conclude with a surplus of 2.9 million tons. This figure represents a decrease of 800,000 tons from the projection made in November but contrasts with the previous cycle's projected deficit of 3.14 million tons. This reduction primarily stems from Brazil’s Center-South and North-Northeast regions, yet the overall outlook for a well-supplied global sugar market remains unchanged. In Brazil, elevated fuel prices are encouraging sugar producers to redirect crop yields towards more lucrative ethanol blending rather than traditional sugar milling. The broker emphasized the importance of recovering sugarcane yields in India and Thailand to restore global market balance, while the growth in sugar consumption is expected to moderate in key regions, including India, China, Indonesia, and the United States.