Gold climbed toward $5,040 per ounce on Friday as markets absorbed a fresh round of US macro data that underscored the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance and kept the timing and scale of rate cuts uncertain. That backdrop enhanced gold’s role as a hedge against both policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk.
The January FOMC minutes revealed a clear division among policymakers, tempering expectations for swift monetary easing. At the same time, the advance estimate of Q4 GDP slowed to a 1.4% annualized rate, while core PCE inflation surprised to the upside at 3% year on year. Initial jobless claims also declined to 206,000, all of which contributed to a more gradual repricing of anticipated rate cuts.
This combination of data left safe-haven flows particularly sensitive to geopolitical developments. An expanded US military posture in the Middle East revived fears of potential supply disruptions, supporting gold, even as physical demand in Asia remained subdued around the Lunar New Year and overall trading volumes stayed light.
