Soybean futures are trading around $11.40 per bushel, near a three-month high, as Chinese buyers return to the market following the Lunar New Year, rekindling hopes for sizable export demand. Additional support stems from the so‑called “Busan Truce,” a reported trade understanding between Presidents Trump and Xi that sets an informal target of 20 million metric tons of Chinese soybean purchases this year.
Upside, however, remains capped by lingering tariff uncertainty and evolving U.S. trade policy after the Supreme Court overturned broad-based tariffs, heightening concerns that an additional 8 million tons in anticipated Chinese purchases could be scrapped. Downward pressure also reflects a record Brazilian crop, estimated at 180 million metric tons, offered at prices significantly below those of U.S. supplies.
Market participants are now focused on whether China will proceed with “goodwill” purchases ahead of a planned April summit, a move that could help underpin current price levels.
