US natural gas futures fell more than 2% to around $2.80 per MMBtu, nearing their lowest level since August, after a 1.3% rebound in the previous session, as traders awaited the weekly storage report from the US Energy Information Administration. Expectations for a relatively modest storage withdrawal of about 36 billion cubic feet last week—well below the hefty draws recorded in recent weeks—exerted additional downward pressure on prices.
Output remains robust, with Lower 48 production averaging 108.7 bcfd in February, up from January. While storage levels were about 6% below the seasonal norm in mid-February, that shortfall is projected to narrow to roughly 1% amid unseasonably mild conditions. Warmer weather forecasts across much of the western United States through the end of the month are further curbing heating demand and easing power sector gas consumption.
With winter drawing to a close, the probability that a late-season cold spell will significantly tighten supplies has diminished. Even so, LNG export activity remains strong at around 18.7 bcfd and is on track to set a monthly record.
