Cocoa prices have retreated to around $2,900 per tonne, after a brief technical rebound lifted them above $3,000 per tonne on March 2. The underlying market tone, however, remains weak, reflecting expectations of ample supply and softening demand.
Favorable weather conditions in West Africa are underpinning stronger production prospects in the region, while South America—particularly Ecuador—is steadily increasing its share of global output. On the demand side, slower global consumption is fueling inventory buildups worldwide, which is likely to cap the scope for a sustained price recovery in the near term.
Hedgepoint Global Markets forecasts a global cocoa surplus of 365,000 tons for the 2025/26 season, according to its late‑February outlook. For 2024/25, the firm revised its estimate of world production to 4.728 million tons, up from a previous projection of 4.698 million tons and 8.4% higher than the 4.362 million tons recorded in 2023/24.
