US sugar futures traded near 13.7 cents per pound, the lowest level in two weeks, as expectations of abundant supply outweighed geopolitical risks stemming from the Middle East crisis, including higher oil and transportation costs. Bearish pressure on sugar prices reflects forecasts of global surpluses in upcoming harvests, led by India.
The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) reported that the country’s output between October 1 and February 28 of the 2025/26 crop year reached 24.75 million tons, a 12% increase compared with the same period in the previous season.
At the same time, analysts at Czarnikow expect a substantial global sugar surplus of 8.3 million tons in 2025/26, followed by a further surplus of 3.4 million tons in 2026/27. Other consultancies project comparable outcomes: Green Pool forecasts surpluses of 2.74 million tons in 2025/26 and 156,000 tons in 2026/27, while StoneX anticipates a 2.9 million-ton surplus in 2025/26.
