Steel rebar futures climbed above CNY 3,080 per ton, nearing a one‑month high after China reiterated its commitment to support the steel industry by cutting excess capacity. Economic planners at the National People’s Congress indicated they will pursue a gradual, orderly reduction in steel production capacity, a strategy expected to underpin prices and bolster profit margins.
Chinese steelmakers remain under pressure from chronic oversupply amid a prolonged property market slump, while exports face growing headwinds from protectionist measures overseas. Beijing issued similar commitments during the 2025 policy meetings, though the results were mixed.
China’s crude steel output slipped below 1 billion tons last year for the first time since 2019, although some analysts have questioned the accuracy of the official data. At the same time, Beijing set its 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5%–5%, the lowest since the early 1990s, as policymakers contend with persistent deflationary pressures and higher US tariffs.
