European natural gas futures held above €50/MWh on Friday and were on track for their biggest weekly gain since February 2022, as fears mounted that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could significantly disrupt gas supplies. Prices have risen to their highest levels since early 2023, surging more than 50% over the course of the week.
Early indications of supply strain are already emerging. Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region has warned it could exhaust its gas supplies within days. Analysts now project that European gas storage could end March at just 22–27% of capacity, well below the five-year average of roughly 41%. If fewer LNG cargoes arrive over the next four weeks, storage levels may drop even further, amplifying the risk of supply shortages.
At the same time, the Trump administration has indicated it is considering a range of measures to counter the sharp rise in energy prices.
