The National Bank of Kazakhstan left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 18% on March 6, 2026, citing still-elevated inflation despite a continuing disinflationary trend. Annual inflation slowed to 11.7% in February from 12.2% in January, with price growth moderating across food (12.7%), non-food goods (11.6%), and services (10.8%).
According to the central bank, tight monetary conditions, an appreciating tenge, a deceleration in unsecured consumer lending, and government anti-inflation measures have all contributed to easing price pressures. However, monthly inflation accelerated to 1.1% in February.
Looking ahead, the central bank projects inflation in 2026 at 9.5–11.5%, slowing further to 5.5–7.5% in 2027 and moving toward the 5% target in 2028. GDP growth is forecast at 3.5–4.5% this year.
The bank stated that there is currently no scope for monetary easing, but it may consider cutting rates in the second half of 2026 if the slowdown in inflation proves sustainable. The next policy decision is scheduled for April 24, 2026.
