The Indian rupee has weakened beyond 92 per US dollar, its lowest level on record, pressured by surging oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude has risen nearly 25% so far this month, approaching $95 per barrel, intensifying concerns about India’s energy import bill and its implications for inflation and the current account deficit.
The Reserve Bank of India intervened in the foreign exchange market last week to stabilize the currency, but continued gains in oil have driven the rupee lower as importers step up hedging while exporters delay conversions amid heightened uncertainty. A broader risk-off mood in global markets and stronger demand for the US dollar are adding to the downward pressure, leaving the rupee highly sensitive to developments in energy markets and the geopolitical backdrop.
Investors are also focusing on India’s external sector vulnerabilities, including remittance inflows from Gulf countries, which account for roughly 3.5% of GDP. Analysts caution that a protracted conflict in the region could weigh on these remittances, posing an additional downside risk for the currency.
