The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was little changed at 4.13% on Monday, after briefly rising to 4.21% earlier in the session, as oil prices pared gains and slipped back below $100 per barrel. While that pullback offered some respite, concerns persist that an energy-driven surge in inflation could prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates, continuing to weigh on investor sentiment.
The conflict in the Middle East shows few signs of easing. Major regional producers, including Kuwait, Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, have cut output amid limited storage capacity and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Against this backdrop, traders now anticipate only a single 25 bps rate cut from the Fed this year—most likely in September—down from expectations of two cuts just a week earlier.
Investors are also bracing for a busy week of US economic data, including the CPI report, the PCE price index, and JOLTS job openings, which should provide further clarity on the underlying strength of the US economy and the likely path of monetary policy.
