Aluminum futures in the UK have rebounded to their highest level in nearly four years, trading above $3,400 per tonne, as investors assess how prolonged conflict in the Middle East may continue to disrupt global metal supplies. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has effectively halted shipments from the Persian Gulf, a region that represents roughly 9% of global aluminum production.
Output from China, the world’s largest producer, is unlikely to offset these disruptions entirely. Chinese production remains capped at 45 million tons under government policies designed to curb overcapacity in key industrial sectors, while efforts to expand capacity in Indonesia are being constrained by rising energy costs and regulatory obstacles.
Prices are also drawing support from strengthening demand in fast-growing sectors such as artificial intelligence, energy storage, and solar power, all of which are driving increased consumption of aluminum.
