The annual inflation rate in the US is expected to have held steady at 2.4% in February 2026, unchanged from January and remaining at its lowest level since May 2025. On a monthly basis, the CPI is estimated to have risen by 0.3%, a slight acceleration from January’s 0.2% increase. Gasoline prices likely moved higher, while price growth for services, food, and housing is anticipated to have slowed, and used vehicle prices probably stayed subdued.
Annual core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is projected to have remained at 2.5%, the same as in January and close to its lowest rate since 2021. Month over month, core CPI is expected to have risen by 0.2%, easing from a 0.3% gain in the prior month.
Overall, the February CPI data are expected to show inflation still running slightly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target but also indicating signs of stabilisation. This pattern partly reflects base effects, as stronger readings from a year earlier drop out of the annual comparison.
