Arabica coffee futures slipped toward $2.80 per pound, the weakest level since late February, weighed down by fresh projections for ample supply from top producer Brazil. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) now estimates this year’s Brazilian coffee harvest at a record 64.1 million 60-kg bags, 3.9% higher than its January forecast. If confirmed, this would represent an 11.5% increase over last year’s crop, led by gains in Arabica production.
At the same time, forecasts for favorable rainfall across key coffee-growing regions are improving expectations for upcoming harvests. On March 12, StoneX raised its 2026/27 Brazil coffee production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from 70.7 million projected in November. That revision implies a 20.8% increase from the previous season, again driven primarily by higher Arabica output.
Meanwhile, traders remain alert to geopolitical risks, particularly tensions involving Iran, which continue to push global logistics costs higher.
