FX.co ★ US 10-Year Yield Holds Above 4.2%

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note stayed above 4.2% on Wednesday, paring its two-day decline but retaining most of its gains since early March amid signs the FOMC is taking inflation risks more seriously. As expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, but policymakers raised their projections for both core and headline inflation and upgraded their outlook for GDP growth. Pro-inflation pressures were underscored by a stronger-than-expected February PPI reading and further increases in energy prices following attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. At the same time, a larger share of FOMC members indicated that, in their baseline scenario, no rate cuts would be needed this year, while others—concerned about a softening labor market—favored a more accommodative policy stance. Interest rate traders remained divided over whether the Fed will deliver one or two rate cuts in 2024.