US natural gas futures slipped to around $3 per MMBtu, holding within a narrow trading range as investors balanced a regional oversupply against tightening global markets amid the war involving Iran. Heightened US–Iran tensions have driven up oil production, which in turn has increased associated gas output in the Permian Basin—an area that supplies roughly one-quarter of US natural gas. However, insufficient pipeline and processing capacity has led to a localized glut and a rise in gas flaring.
At the same time, global LNG exports have fallen to a six‑month low, underscoring a stark contrast in supply dynamics. Shipments declined by about 20% to 1.1 million tons, largely due to reduced exports from Qatar and, to a lesser extent, the UAE, following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Escalating tensions with Iran forced partial shutdowns at Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, the world’s largest LNG facility, where damage is expected to take years to fully repair. Consequently, additional supply from newly commissioned US and Canadian LNG projects has been almost entirely offset by lost volumes from Qatar and the effective near‑closure of this critical shipping corridor.
