Corn futures hovered around $4.60 per bushel, holding near their highest level since May 2025, buoyed by elevated energy prices as the ongoing Middle East conflict continues to disrupt fuel and fertilizer supply chains. A brief pullback in oil followed US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a five-day pause in strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, but broader supply concerns persist as Iran maintains disruptions to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for oil and fertilizer exports.
Rising diesel and nitrogen fertilizer costs—both key inputs for corn production—are eroding farmer margins, particularly in the United States, with similar pressures increasingly evident worldwide. In regions such as South Africa, fuel shortages and higher input costs are already undermining planting and harvesting activity, underscoring risks to output. Given corn’s heavy reliance on fertilizer, the ongoing cost shock is strengthening expectations of tighter supply and helping to keep prices supported, even as volatility remains elevated.
