South Africa’s composite leading business cycle indicator rose by 0.4% month-on-month in January 2026, recovering from a downwardly revised 0.4% decline in December. Five of the ten available components recorded increases, offsetting decreases in the remaining five. The strongest positive contributions came from higher US dollar–denominated export commodity prices and a rebound in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index. In contrast, the main negative contributions stemmed from a slowdown in the six-month growth rate of new passenger vehicle sales and a decline in domestic manufacturing orders.
Meanwhile, the composite coincident business cycle indicator fell by 0.2% in December 2025, reflecting weaker industrial production and a drop in the real value of wholesale, retail, and motor trade sales. The composite lagging indicator inched up by 0.1% in the same month.
