The Federal Reserve’s Fifth District manufacturing index rose by 10 points in March 2026 to reach 0, surpassing market expectations of -5. This reading indicates that overall manufacturing activity in the district was stable, marking the first month without contraction since February of the previous year, despite headwinds from surging energy prices following the outbreak of war in the Middle East during the month.
Shipments continued to contract but at a much slower pace (-2 vs. -13 in February), supported by a rebound in new orders (4 vs. -9). Similarly, the rate of staff reductions moderated significantly (-2 vs. -7), even as wage growth, though still elevated, eased somewhat (14 vs. 18). Meanwhile, growth in prices paid slowed (6.11 vs. 6.52), despite sharp increases in wholesale energy costs.
Looking ahead, expectations for shipments (26 vs. 29) and new orders (30 vs. 35) softened slightly but remained firmly in positive territory, signaling continued strength in the outlook for manufacturing activity.
