Japan’s coincident economic index—which tracks factory output, employment, and retail sales—rose to 117.9 in January 2026, exceeding both the preliminary estimate of 116.8 and an upwardly revised 114.5 in the previous month. This marked the highest level since May 2019, indicating a moderate improvement in overall economic activity.
The impact of recent U.S. trade policies was felt most sharply in the automotive industry, while other sectors showed greater resilience. Steady gains in employment and income underpinned household consumption, and business investment began to recover despite persistent cost pressures.
On the policy front, the Bank of Japan kept its short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.75% at its first meeting of 2026. In its quarterly outlook, the policy board raised its FY2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 0.7%, citing positive momentum from a new trade agreement with Washington and Tokyo’s substantial fiscal stimulus package.
