The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply to 91.3 in March 2026, down from 100.1 in February, marking a clear reversal amid heightened uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict. The proportion of households viewing it as a good time to buy a major household item—a key gauge of retail demand—dropped 10 points to -14, firmly returning to negative territory.
The future conditions index declined to 96.7, its lowest level since October (down from 106.9), while the current conditions index slid to 83.1, below its December reading of 90.0. Perceptions of current personal finances also weakened, with net assessments deteriorating to -20% from -16%, suggesting that the latest shock is now being felt in day-to-day economic experience.
A net 10% of respondents expect their financial situation to improve over the coming year. However, views on the broader economy have darkened: expectations for economic conditions over the next 12 months fell 17 points to -25%, and the 5-year outlook edged down 3 points to 5%.
By contrast, price expectations moved higher. House price inflation expectations ticked up to 3.8% from 3.6%, while 2-year inflation expectations rose more markedly, to 5.7% from 4.7%.
