Arabica coffee futures slipped to just under $2.90 per pound, the lowest level in more than two weeks, as expectations of rising global supply—particularly from top producer Brazil—weighed on prices. The imminent start of Brazil’s harvest is set to gradually boost the volume of coffee available in the physical market, adding to the usual seasonal downward pressure on prices.
On Thursday, Marex Group Plc forecast a record Brazilian coffee crop of 75.9 million bags for the 2026/27 season, exceeding last week’s Sucafina estimate of 75.4 million bags and implying a 15.5% increase from the previous year. Earlier this month, StoneX also raised its 2026/27 Brazil production forecast to a record 75.3 million bags, up from 70.7 million bags projected in November.
At the same time, certified Arabica inventories have begun to recover, though they remain below historical averages, offering some relief to near-term supply concerns. Market participants are also closely monitoring the broader geopolitical backdrop, particularly the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, for its potential impact on coffee trade and risk sentiment.
