The Dallas Fed’s general business activity index for Texas manufacturing edged down to -0.2 in March 2026 from 0.2 in February, signaling essentially unchanged overall activity. In contrast, sentiment deteriorated: the company outlook index dropped nearly seven points to -3.5, slipping into negative territory, while the outlook uncertainty index jumped 20 points to 26.0, its highest level since April 2025.
Labor market conditions softened. Employment growth stalled and average workweeks were flat. The employment index hovered near zero, with 15 percent of firms reporting net hiring and 16 percent reporting net layoffs. The hours worked index declined to 0.9 from 6.1.
Inflation pressures showed little change, but wage gains moderated. The finished goods prices index and raw materials prices index were relatively steady at 18.4 and 32.7, respectively. The wages and benefits index fell to 25.2 from 31.9, indicating slower compensation growth.
Despite current softness and rising uncertainty, manufacturers remain cautiously optimistic about the medium-term outlook. Over the next six months, they anticipate higher activity: the future production index was unchanged at 35.7, while the future general business activity index eased two points to 10.6 but stayed in positive territory.
