US natural gas futures fell more than 5% to $2.866 per MMBtu, pressured by warmer weather forecasts across the eastern United States that are dampening demand expectations heading into spring. Temperatures are now projected to run above seasonal norms from March 30 through early April and again in mid-April, curbing heating needs and reinforcing expectations of rising inventories.
While the EIA reported a larger-than-usual storage withdrawal last week, market participants generally view it as the final draw of the winter season. Stocks are expected to move from a modest surplus in mid-March to a significantly larger surplus by mid-April.
On the geopolitical front, President Donald Trump said a deal to end hostilities in the Middle East is likely, but warned of potential strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Nonetheless, US natural gas prices have remained relatively steady, underpinned by robust domestic production, comfortable inventory levels, and limited short-term exposure to global gas markets.
