US gasoline futures climbed above $3.35 per gallon, reaching their highest level since July 2022, as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to constrain global supply and drive a record 30% monthly gain. The rally is being fueled by the physical disruption of key energy corridors, with Houthi activity in Yemen introducing new risks to Red Sea transit and shipments from Yanbu.
At the same time, President Trump has signaled that serious talks are underway to end the five-week conflict. However, his simultaneous ultimatum—threatening to destroy Iranian power plants and the Kharg Island export hub if the waterway remains blocked—has amplified the geopolitical risk premium. The deployment of additional US forces and the resulting surge in WTI crude prices have established a strong price floor that more than offsets concerns over weakening global growth.
As a result, gasoline prices remain tightly linked to these supply-side shocks, with the market balancing optimism over a potential peace agreement against the risk of significant damage to critical energy infrastructure.
