The Indian rupee weakened to around 93.5 per US dollar, with losses pausing after a brief period of stabilization, as persistent geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices continued to pressure the currency. While recent comments from Donald Trump have raised hopes that the conflict could be resolved soon, ongoing uncertainty is keeping investors on edge.
In March, global investors withdrew approximately $12 billion from Indian equities, marking the largest monthly outflow on record. Brent crude has risen 44% since February and could climb further if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, compounding pressure on the rupee.
Analysts caution that if the conflict in Iran drags on, the rupee could slide to 100 per dollar or even weaker, despite recent steps by the Reserve Bank of India to contain its roughly 10% depreciation over the past year. Market sentiment remains bearish: options pricing now implies about a 13% probability that the rupee will hit 100 per dollar by June, and a 41% chance by the end of the year.
