The US economy is expected to have added 60,000 jobs in March 2026, partially offsetting February’s loss of 92,000 positions, which was largely driven by strike-related disruptions. In particular, roughly 31,000 nurses at Kaiser Permanente in California and Hawaii returned to work in late February, a development that should help lift healthcare payrolls in March.
Employment gains are also anticipated to strengthen in construction and in leisure and hospitality, following weather-related softness over the winter months. The jobs report is projected to show the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.4%.
Average hourly earnings are likely to have risen 0.3% month-on-month, a slight moderation from February’s 0.4% increase. On a year-on-year basis, wage growth is expected to edge down to 3.7%, from 3.8% in the previous month.
