FX.co ★ Heating Oil Pares Gains

Heating oil futures trimmed earlier gains to trade near $4.40 per gallon on Monday, as markets weighed renewed ceasefire efforts in the Middle East against a fresh ultimatum from President Donald Trump on Iran. Reports indicated that the US, Iran, and regional mediators were working on a potential 45-day ceasefire, though the likelihood of even a partial agreement within the next 48 hours was seen as low. At the same time, Iran said Iraq would be exempt from curbs on the Strait, a move that could support increased oil flows, while SOMO confirmed that Iraqi exports remain unrestricted and can be loaded as usual. Meanwhile, President Trump warned on social media that Iran would face severe consequences if it fails to reopen the passage, including possible strikes on key infrastructure such as power plants and bridges. Elsewhere, OPEC+ agreed to increase output by 206,000 bpd in May, though closed Strait routes and damaged infrastructure may continue to limit how much crude actually reaches global markets.