The South African rand strengthened toward 16.8 per USD, buoyed by rising precious metal prices and a softer US dollar following reports of a potential ceasefire in the Middle East. US allies, including Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey, are pressing Iran for a last-minute agreement as President Trump extends his deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite the recent gains, the rand remains about 6% weaker since the onset of the conflict, weighed down by higher oil prices and a shift in safe-haven demand toward the US dollar at the expense of gold. South Africa faces mounting risks from surging fuel costs, potential disruptions to energy supplies, and growing inflationary pressures, underscoring the vulnerability of its energy-import-dependent economy to the Middle East crisis.
In March, the South African Reserve Bank left its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 6.75%, warning that elevated energy costs pose upside risks to inflation and signalling that further rate hikes remain on the table should these inflation risks intensify.
