WTI crude oil futures surged above $116 per barrel after President Donald Trump warned that “a whole civilization could die tonight,” ahead of his 8 p.m. deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The price spike followed overnight U.S. strikes on military targets on Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export hub. Although officials emphasized that energy infrastructure was not deliberately targeted, the direct military action has sharply intensified global supply concerns.
President Trump further escalated tensions by calling Iran’s latest peace proposals “significant but insufficient” and threatening to destroy Iranian power plants by midnight. While tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz improved slightly to eight vessels on Monday, current flows remain only a fraction of the roughly 20 million barrels per day that passed through the chokepoint in 2025. Against this backdrop, market participants are now assigning a higher probability to full-scale regime change in Iran, as the fog of war continues to obscure the outlook for global energy markets.
